Aaron R. Kaufman and Jon Rogowski
Revise & Resubmit, Political Science Research & Methods
Abstract: While presidents frequently create new policies through unilateral power, empirical scholarship generally focuses on executive orders and overlooks other categories of directives. We use new data on more than 50,000 unilateral directives issued between 1877 and 2020 and machine learning techniques to measure their substantive importance and issue areas. Our measures reveal significant increases in unilateral activity over time, driven largely by increases in foreign affairs and through the substitution of memoranda for executive orders. We use our measures to formally evaluate the historical development of the unilateral presidency and reassess theoretical claims about public opinion and unilateral power. Our research provides new evidence about variation in and the use of presidential authority and opens new avenues for empirical inquiry.